Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
